XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk

Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk by Aggregated Damage Ratio, with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region.

• • More than a quarter (54) of these are in East Asia: 29 in China, 20 in Japan and 4 in South Korea.

• • 36 of the top 200 are in South East Asia, notably Vietnam and Indonesia.

• • South Asia has 24 of the top 200. After China, India has the highest number of states in the top 50 (9), with Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Assam ranking highest. Pakistan also has multiple provinces in the top 100, including Sindh province. Devastating flooding between June and August 2022 affected 30 per cent of the area of Pakistan and has partially or fully damaged more than 900,000 houses in Sindh province. 

• • East Asia and South East Asia see the greatest increase in Average Damage between 1990 and 2050, and China in particular has many provinces with the greatest overall Aggregated Damage Ratio. This increase and overall risk to the built environment in 2050 is driven predominately by sea level rise and secondarily by flooding risk” in the Asia section should read “by flooding and coastal inundation.

• The analysis highlights the vulnerability of major cities in East Asia and South East Asia including Jakarta, Beijing, Hồ Chí Minh City and Taiwan.

• The top two most at-risk provinces in the world in 2050 are two of the largest economies in China – Jiangsu and Shandong. Each has a relatively diverse economy worth over a trillion US dollars. 


• The economy of Jiangsu is highly developed and hinges on finance, education, technology and tourism as well as irrigated agriculture. Coastal Jiangsu on the Yangtze River Delta is already subjected to typhoons and in the last five years has experienced extreme flooding that has disrupted agricultural production and affected millions of people. China has invested significant capital in the building of sea walls and river floodgates in this province. 


• Shandong province on the Yellow River is home to over 100 million people and is China’s third largest province by GDP and an important agricultural and industrial centre. Like much of eastern China, Shandong is subject to frequent flooding. Several catastrophic flooding events have occurred this century, including in 2022, against the backdrop of an overall drying trend.


• Guangdong on the Pearl River Delta is the biggest provincial economy in China by economic size and population. It is home to 126 million people and hosts Pearl River Delta Economic Zone and globally-significant ports on the South China Sea. Extreme flooding in Guangdong in 2022 caused an estimated 7.5 billion yuan in direct economic losses (over $1b USD). 


• Projections are for extreme weather events in these regions to intensify in the coming years and the capital of Guangdong, Guangzhou has been estimated to be “the most economically vulnerable city in the world” to sea level rise by 2050 (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10).

• There are a number of provinces that rank high for both Aggregated and Average Damage Ratios in 2050. Many of these are in Vietnam, including Ho Chi Minh City and Mekong Delta provinces like Long An, Vĩnh Long, Bến Tre, and Tiền Giang. The Mekong Delta is less than two metres above sea level on average, is home to 17 million people and produces most of Vietnam’s food.


• Other South East Asian provinces that rank high for both Aggregated and Average Damage Ratio include Jakarta, West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat) and Southern Sumatra (Sumatra Selatan)


• South East Asia experiences the greatest escalation in damage from 1990 to 2050. Among the places experiencing the highest percentage increases in damage to 2050 are islands in Mindanao in the Philippines, including the Sulu Archipelago, Tawi-Tawi and Camiguin. 

• Sea level rise is a driving hazard for many states. The US Fourth National Climate Assessment found that sea level rise rates along the Mid-Atlantic Coast were three to four times higher than the global average rate. In the Mid-West, the highest ranking states are those that have both escalating risk from both flood and wildfire.


•  The US has experienced 332 weather and climate related disasters since 1980 where overall damages reached or exceeded US$1 billion with the frequency of these events increasing in recent years. In the last five years, there’s been an average of 18 of these events per year. 


• Florida, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, is the fourth largest state economy in the US, with gross domestic product of over a trillion US dollars. Florida is exposed to a number of climate-exacerbated hazards which are already manifesting, including increased number of extreme heat days, increased risk of wildfire, inland flooding and coastal inundation. 


• The analysis in this ranking does not include additional climate change impacts expected in both Florida and Louisiana, such as escalating human health risk from mosquito-borne viruses. 


• Louisiana is also on the Gulf coast and its major cities are in or beside the Mississippi River Delta. These cities and the coastline have already suffered the impacts of intense rainfall and flooding events, sea level rise and major hurricanes like Rita and Katrina. 


• The analysis confirms the results of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment which estimated the state would experience US$113 billion in annual direct economic impact from climate change by 2050 without adaptation measures. 


• In terms of escalation of damage, the US states with the highest percentage increase in Damage Ratio are Massachusetts, Alaska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Hawaii and Connecticut, all of which experience a more than two fold increase between 1990 and 2050.