The XDI GDCR is the second release in the XDI Benchmark Series, ranking the physical climate risk to the built environment in all states and provinces around the world.
XDI has released a first-pass analysis of “Gross Domestic Climate Risk,” calculating the physical climate risk to the built environment in over 2,600 territories around the world. The findings underscore the importance of pricing physical climate risk in financial markets given the amount of capital investment represented by the assets at risk in the provinces identified, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the need for climate resilience to inform investment.
80% of the top 50 most at-risk states and provinces in 2050 are in China, the United States or India.
Other countries with multiple provinces and states in the top 50 include Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia.
In Europe, high-ranking states encompass the cities of London, Milan, Venice, Antwerp, Hanover and Lille.
The Gross Domestic Climate Risk analysis focuses on the extent of capital value at risk from extreme weather and climate change in states, provinces and other territories, represented by vulnerability and exposure of the built environment.
Use the interactive table below to rank 2,639 jurisdictions’ physical risk of damage from extreme weather and climate change in 2050 (expressed as Damage Ratio).
1. Search by region, country or territory. Territories in this dataset are the first sub-national administrative jurisdiction for most countries.
2. Ranking can be sorted by Aggregated Damage Ratio or Average Damage Ratio. Click on the heading in the table to choose.
3. See the notes below the table for important method and metric information.
Damage Ratio is an expression of the Annual Average Loss from extreme weather damage to a property as a fraction of the replacement cost of that property. It is expressed as a ratio to enable comparability of physical risk unaffected by exchange rates, inflation and other variables. In other words, it is possible for two properties to have the same Damage Ratio, despite having different replacement values. The estimates do not account for increases in building stock over time.
Damage Ratio is used in the XDI modelling as it enables comparable assessment of extreme weather and climate risk across different countries where the value of property or the cost of repair may vary considerably.
Two versions of Damage Ratio are provided in the ranking: Aggregated Damage Ratio and Average Damage Ratio.
Aggregated Damage Ratio looks at the total amount of damage to the built environment in a particular province. Damage Ratios are aggregated and normalised to give insight into the extent of risk to the built environment as a whole, so that states with more stock exposed can be identified.
Average Damage Ratio provides insight into states and provinces that may have fewer properties but which may be subjected to greater or more widespread damage, so the proportion of damage is higher.
The states, provinces and territories in this dataset are the first sub-national administrative jurisdiction for most countries, where data could be located. They vary greatly in size and this variation influences the result for Aggregated Damage Ratio. For 115 countries that are less than 25,000 square kilometres in land area or have a population below five million people results have been represented as a single territory and are labelled ‘whole country’ and this includes some external territories of other nations. Some administrative boundary changes may post-date the data used in this analysis.
Read our Method background to understand what hazards and exposures have informed these results.
When using XDI’s Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking we ask that you cite 2023 XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk with a link to this webpage.
This Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking (Ranking) is based on an assessment of risks to the global built environment arising from the effects of climate change using a selection of information, data, scientific methods and modelling techniques as described in our methods document. Such information, data, methods and modelling techniques may be subject to limitations.
The information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking does not comprise or constitute and should not be relied upon as investment or financial advice.
XDI and its affiliates (i) disclaims any and all responsibility for any errors or inaccuracies in the information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking; (ii) is not responsible for any use made of the information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking by any party; and (iii) accepts no liability for any action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on the information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking.
Use of and/or reliance on the information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking is at your sole risk.
To the full extent permitted by law, you waive and release XDI, its directors, officers, employees, associates, affiliates, and agents from all liability for loss, costs, liabilities, expenses or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on, information, data and inferences contained in this Ranking.
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Can’t see your desired territory?
Fill in the form below to view all 2,600+ territories in the Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking.
Global heatmap
A global picture of 2,600+ territories in this dataset, coloured to show areas with higher Aggregated Damage Ratio in 2050.
XDI’s data aligns with previous studies on global exposure to extreme weather hazards but its focus on the built environment shines new light on risk in areas where extensive residential, industrial or commercial built-up areas coincide with expected escalation of extreme weather due to climate change.
The graph below plots changing risk in the territories in the dataset over from 1990-2100. Press play to animate and select or deselect world regions by clicking the legend.
This graph shows each of the provinces in the ranking, grouped by global region, plotted according to their changing Aggregated Damage Risk (x-axis) and Average Damage Risk (y-axis) over time normalised against the global average in 1990.
The global picture shows physical climate risk to the built environment in East Asia and South East Asia escalating steeply after 2030 and leading the world in regional Average Damage Ratio reflecting the density of the built environment in river deltas and coastal areas of these regions.
The low ranking of other provinces, particularly in places like Sub-Saharan Africa, largely reflects the lower extent of their built infrastructure. It should not be interpreted that these areas are at low risk from climate change and extreme weather.
It is important to note that this analysis has not included social, environmental and economic impacts from effects such as water shortages, or impacts on agricultural production, biodiversity or human well-being.
 | Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk by Aggregated Damage Ratio, with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region.
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China has 29 states in the top 100 in 2050 and 26 of these are in the top 50.
Globally, the Chinese provinces Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Henan have the highest results for Aggregated Damage Ratio in 2050 of any of the provinces and territories in this analysis. This is because these provinces are large, they host extensive industrial, trade, residential and commercial development and are exposed to coastal sea level rise and riverine and surface flooding.
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A focus on Aggregated Damage Ratio foregrounds large states and provinces with extensive built-up areas. Other parts of South East Asia rank among the highest in the world both for Average Damage Ratio and for the increase in damage from 1990 to 2050.
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Three states in the US appear in the top 20 of the global ranking of states and provinces in 2050: Florida (10th), California (19th) and Texas (20th) and close to half of all US states are in the top five per cent (top 132) of those most at risk in the world.
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Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk by Aggregated Damage Ratio, with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region.
China has 29 states in the top 100 in 2050 and 26 of these are in the top 50.
Globally, the Chinese provinces Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Henan have the highest results for Aggregated Damage Ratio in 2050 of any of the provinces and territories in this analysis. This is because these provinces are large, they host extensive industrial, trade, residential and commercial development and are exposed to coastal sea level rise and riverine and surface flooding.
A focus on Aggregated Damage Ratio foregrounds large states and provinces with extensive built-up areas. Other parts of South East Asia rank among the highest in the world both for Average Damage Ratio and for the increase in damage from 1990 to 2050.
Three states in the US appear in the top 20 of the global ranking of states and provinces in 2050: Florida (10th), California (19th) and Texas (20th) and close to half of all US states are in the top five per cent (top 132) of those most at risk in the world.
Regions in focus
Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk by Aggregated Damage Ratio, with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region.
Regions in focus
China has 29 states in the top 100 in 2050 and 26 of these are in the top 50.
Globally, the Chinese provinces Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Henan have the highest results for Aggregated Damage Ratio in 2050 of any of the provinces and territories in this analysis. This is because these provinces are large, they host extensive industrial, trade, residential and commercial development and are exposed to coastal sea level rise and riverine and surface flooding.
Regions in focus
A focus on Aggregated Damage Ratio foregrounds large states and provinces with extensive built-up areas. Other parts of South East Asia rank among the highest in the world both for Average Damage Ratio and for the increase in damage from 1990 to 2050.
Regions in focus
Three states in the US appear in the top 20 of the global ranking of states and provinces in 2050: Florida (10th), California (19th) and Texas (20th) and close to half of all US states are in the top five per cent (top 132) of those most at risk in the world.
Regions in focus
The risks to a range of European countries are modelled to increase substantially due to hazards such as flooding, forest fires and coastal inundation.
Regions in focus
Three Australian states – Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland – rank highest for Aggregated Damage Ratio in the Oceania region.
The dataset behind the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk analysis is particularly significant for investors, as extensive built-up areas overlap with high levels of economic activity and property wealth. It can inform climate-resilient investment, in conjunction with state and provincial governments undertaking adaptation and infrastructure planning.
The capability and results provide a new level of detail and sophistication in physical climate risk analysis that can be used to consider the effect of climate change extreme weather on sovereign, sub-sovereign and corporate debt, and builds on growing concern about these issues raised by the global finance sector.
Ratings agency SP described climate change as “a global mega-trend for sovereign risk” in 2014. The agency went on in 2015 to identify a range of channels through which natural disasters can affect sovereign debt including direct draw on public finances, rising debt and deficit ratios, asset damage and impairment of trade.
Impacts on densely-populated and economically-developed areas were identified by SP as bearing large costs and “more likely to hurt a sovereign’s credit standing.” Understanding physical climate risk in heavily-developed states and provinces contributes to understanding the implications of climate change for sovereign risk.
Swiss Re conducted a stress test of global economies under unmitigated climate change (3.2 degrees warming by mid-century) and found that China is at risk of losing nearly 24% of its GDP in a severe climate change scenario and ASEAN countries 37.4%. According to Swiss Re, the United States stands to lose close to 10%, and Europe almost 11% of GDP under this scenario.
In 2021, Moodys found that “physical climate risk exposure is material and negative for most Moody’s-rated sovereigns through its associated economic, fiscal and social costs” and in its analysis, found that physical climate risk was “highly negative” for China.
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